![]() How do you get the general public to understand more concretely? I’m still not sure. Oftentimes, the uncertainty is far more important than the estimate that it’s attached to. From a statistician’s point of view, it’s a greater disservice to readers to not show uncertainty. Data is often looked to as a place of concreteness and definite answers, but really, statistics is the study of chance, non-guarantees, and yes, uncertainty. Mainly though, I think most people don’t have a good grasp on uncertainty and how it relates to data, which makes me think this is more of a data literacy challenge than it is a visualization one. If any of those jittered, you’d be confused or assume something broke. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of. There are speedometers in a car, thermometers in the kitchen or outside, and pressure gauges in air pumps. Early vote in Miami shows Republican strength. Polls in most states will close by 9 p.m. Think of what gauges usually show in your everyday. Maybe it was the choice of metaphor that confused people. I used movement to show uncertainty a couple of months back, and there was confusion, but it was definitely sans anger. I was a little confused too when I first saw it but an explanation on Twitter cleared things up quick. I’m curious if a brief explanation of the needle movement would’ve made people less upset. ![]() So it wasn’t just random jitter that some suggested. By the end of the night, the gauges barely moved. As the night went on, the gauges fluctuated less and less as our forecast became more precise. In our opinion, having the dial fluctuate a small amount – bound by the 25th and 75 percentile of simulated outcomes – was more successful at conveying the uncertainty around our forecast than simply listing what those percentiles were. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Gregor Aisch, an NYT graphics editor, explains what they tried to accomplish with the gauges.Į thought (and still think!) this movement actually helped demonstrate the uncertainty around our forecast, conveying the relative precision of our estimates. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. It moved to show a 25th to 75th percentile band of uncertainty:Ī lot of people didn’t get it, and it seemed to upset plenty of people too. Davis, Dean Chang, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney, Esha Ray and Dagny Salas.During the election, The New York Times showed a live gauge to show the current forecast for Clinton and Trump. Editing by Wilson Andrews, Felice Belman, William P. Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States overnight, and Hillary Clinton delivered her concession speech on Wednesday. ![]() Mays, Amelia Nierenberg, Rick Rojas, Dana Rubinstein, Edgar Sandoval, Tracey Tully, Michael Wines and Kate Zernike. Chen, Emily Cochrane, Nicholas Fandos, Emma G. Lee, Ilana Marcus, Jaymin Patel, Charlie Smart, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Produced by Michael Andre, Cam Baker, Neil Berg, Michael Beswetherick, Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Leo Dominguez, Tiff Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Jasmine C. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. The Times’s election forecast is now running. The Times publishes its own estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press.
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